德银报告:人民币汇率或将开启长期升值周期|12孩岁女被弄高潮了

  中新社北京9月5日电 (记者 夏宾)中新社记者5日从德意志银行集团(下称“德银”)获悉,其中国区首席经济学家熊奕发表最新研究报告指出,近期人民币对美元汇率走强,或预示着人民币将开启长期升值周期。

  熊奕指出,随着贸易紧张局势改善,人民币汇率或迎来趋势性拐点。尽管美国对华关税壁垒有所抬升,但中国出口表现依然强于预期,对非美地区出口的增长有效对冲了对美出口的下滑。伴随市场对人民币贬值预期的降温,出口企业结汇意愿回升,而进口企业的外汇购回需求相应减弱。这一调整推动近几个月贸易项下外汇净流入规模稳步扩大。

  熊奕称,基于此,德银研究判断人民币汇率有望逐步修复与贸易摩擦相关的贬值压力。实际上,这一修复过程自7月起已初现端倪,但汇率回归均衡水平仍尚待时日。中国股市的资金流动也有所改善,交易数据显示自8月起北向资金流动规模已出现显著回升。

  德银研究预计人民币在年底前将会走强。由于出口的季节性特征及年末利润回笼的需求旺盛,第四季度通常是出口商集中结汇的旺季。人民币对美元汇率若持续升值,可能触发出口商加速结汇的正反馈。

  此外,当前市场对美元对离岸人民币的做空押注处于近来数月低位,这为人民币汇率进一步走强预留了空间。通胀预期改善也是影响人民币长期升值走势的关键,一些积极迹象有望推动人民币回归长期升值趋势。

  基于上述分析,德银研究预测,至2025年底,人民币对美元汇率升值至7.0,到2026年底升值至6.7。(完)

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发布于:北京市