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当地时间10月8日,国际货币基金组织(IMF)总裁克里斯塔利娜·格奥尔基耶娃在2025年IMF和世界银行秋季年会的前瞻讲话中表示,全球经济在多重冲击下展现出比预期更强的韧性,但增长势头正在减弱。她指出,全球经济“好于预期,但差于所需”,当前韧性尚未经过全面考验,不确定性将继续成为新常态。今明两年全球增长略有放缓,关税政策的走向正成为影响世界经济前景的关键变量。
格奥尔基耶娃表示,世界正处于深刻变革之中,地缘政治格局、技术革命、人口变化和气候风险相互叠加,推动全球经济进入一个“更加复杂、多极化的时代”。
格奥尔基耶娃分析认为,全球经济之所以能在多重挑战下保持韧性,主要得益于政策环境改善、私营部门适应能力增强、关税冲击低于预期以及金融条件总体宽松。多国货币和财政政策更具公信力,私营部门通过提前下单、重组供应链和应用人工智能提升应对能力。美国贸易加权平均关税率从4月的23%降至17.5%,但仍高于此前水平。同时,人工智能带动生产率预期提升,股市上涨、融资环境改善、美元走弱,为市场提供了缓冲。
她表示,当前韧性仍面临严峻考验。黄金需求上升反映地缘政治不确定性增强,关税调整的整体影响尚未完全显现。美国企业利润空间受压可能推高价格并带来新的通胀压力,部分出口商品转向他国市场后或引发“第二轮关税冲击”。她呼吁各国坚持开放合作,防止贸易体系碎片化,维护贸易作为全球增长引擎的重要作用。
她呼吁各国政府在变革时代中相向而行,把握机遇,以稳健政策和制度改革提升经济潜能、增强应对能力,实现更加可持续和包容性的增长。(央视记者 许弢)
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