国家气候中心:预估未来极端高温风险将持续升高|国产午夜激无码毛片久久直播软件
中新社北京7月5日电 (记者 陈溯)记者5日从中国气象局获悉,近日,国家气候中心对2025年6月中国七大气候区的高温事件进行了分析及快速归因。分析结论显示,6月份,西北、长江中下游和华南的高温均受人类活动影响。未来情景预估显示,极端高温风险将持续升高。
观测数据显示,西北地区6月份平均温度较1961至1990年基准期平均值偏高2.85℃(偏高4.7个标准差),创下有观测记录以来的最高值。长江中下游地区和华南地区平均温度分别偏高1.42℃(偏高2.2个标准差)和1.10℃(偏高1.9个标准差),均为有观测记录以来的第六高值。华北地区、东北地区、青藏高原地区和西南地区平均温度分别较气候态平均值偏高1.63℃、1.78℃、1.05℃和0.53℃,历史排名依次为第十一、第八、第二十和第二十九位。
归因分析表明,在当前气候背景下,人类活动使西北地区发生类似极端高温事件的概率增加了64.5倍,使长江中下游地区和华南地区出现的第六高温事件发生概率分别增加11.8倍和12.2倍。此外,华北地区、东北地区、青藏高原地区和西南地区的高温事件极端性不突出,人类活动影响存在,但其增温效应被自然变率抵消。
该结果基于国家气候中心气候变化检测与应对重点创新团队自主研发的“耦合模式双向融合概率比快速归因原型”。使用该原型对历史时期事件的归因分析表明,20世纪80年代以来,人类活动显著增加了极端高温事件的发生概率。未来情景预估进一步显示,极端高温风险将持续升高,当前气候背景下多数区域出现的破纪录高温事件,将在21世纪中期成为常态。(完)
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